CNN data guru says there’s a 60% chance the election will end in an ‘Electoral College blowout’

CNN data expert Harry Enten said that while it’s a close race on the surface, there’s a good chance the election will end with the winner receiving more than 300 Electoral College votes.

CNN anchor John Berman noted that the election looks “historically close,” but asked, “What if it’s not?”

He then turned to CNN senior political data reporter Enten to break down the numbers and observed, “As close as it is, and we believe it’s super close right now, it also means that if things change, even little, it’s not really close.”

“It isn’t,” Enten agreed. “So we have talked about the idea that there will be a historically close election. I think I might have said it on this particular program, but actually — is the winner going to get at least 300 electoral votes? The answer is, most [chance] yes.”

He then outlined how there could be a “relative explosion” in store for the 2024 election.

“There is a … 60% chance that the winner of this election will get at least 300 electoral votes versus only a 40% chance that the winner will end up getting less than 300 electoral votes,” he said. “So for all the talk we’ve had about this election being historically close as it is, the odds are that the winner will still score a relative blow in the Electoral College.”

“Oh my God, you’re hurting my hair,” Berman replied. “How come it’s so close, yet it’s more likely than not to be a pretty big win in the Electoral College.”

“If you look at the seven swing states, the seven closest states in all, the margin is now under 2 points — under 2 points — but keep in mind, the poll is not perfect, my dear friends,” Enten warned. “On average since 1972, in battleground states, in key swing states, the average margin of error in key swing states is 3.4 points.”

Enten then produced electoral maps showing how former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris could end up winning over 300 Electoral College votes.

“So based on what we see with the average margin of error and how close the states are at this point, if all the states move in one direction, one of these candidates could score a relative blowout in the 300-plus Electoral College. electoral votes”, he explained.

Enten pointed out how battleground states tend to end up breaking in one direction.

“History tells us that it’s more likely than not that all swing state voting errors will move in one direction,” the pollster said. “So in 2012, 92% of states moved in Obama’s direction.”

“In 2016, 83% of swing states move together because the polls weakened Donald Trump, of course we all remember that. And what happens in 2020? “100% of the swing state polling averages underestimated Donald Trump, so he did better than many people thought,” he said.

“So this time around, don’t be surprised by the swing state polls when they underrate one candidate, they underrate all of them in the states, and that would lead to a relative Electoral College blowout with one of the winning candidates in at least 300 electoral votes”, he concluded.